Book Tim

Predictions

Ten AI Predictions for 2026

Every December I put ten predictions on the record. Here’s my bet on where AI takes us in 2026.

  1. 01

    OpenAI goes public

    The most talked-about company in tech finally hits the stock market. One of the largest tech listings in history, and the clearest sign yet that AI has moved to the centre of the global economy.

  2. 02

    The first one-person unicorn

    Someone builds a billion-dollar company almost alone: a tiny team with a wall of AI agents doing the work of hundreds. The tools already shipped; 2026 is when someone proves it.

  3. 03

    Vibecoded AI writes production code

    Real businesses will let software written mostly by AI run in production, not just prototypes. A big leap of trust - and once one large company admits it works, the rest follow fast.

  4. 04

    Nvidia holds its lead

    Everyone is coming for Nvidia, but my bet is they keep the crown through 2026. The moat isn't just the chips; it's the software the whole industry already builds on.

  5. 05

    Alphabet becomes the world's most valuable company

    Google was written off in the AI race. I think the opposite happens: with Gemini, its own chips and an unrivalled search business, Alphabet climbs to #1 by market cap.

  6. 06

    No AI bubble crash

    Everyone's waiting for the bubble to pop. I don't think it does in 2026 - behind the hype there's now real revenue, real usage and real productivity.

  7. 07

    China’s "iPhone moment"

    Chinese AI stops being the underdog. Expect a genuine breakthrough, and Western companies quietly adopting Chinese open models because they're good, cheap and open.

  8. 08

    Digital workers arrive for real

    AI agents finally show up as "digital workers" at meaningful scale, doing real jobs in real companies. The year agent hype turns into agent payroll.

  9. 09

    In-chat buying goes mainstream in Denmark

    You'll shop without leaving the chat, buying inside ChatGPT and other assistants on the free tiers, right here in Denmark. It quietly rewires e-commerce.

  10. 10

    AI cracks a real drug-discovery milestone

    The most important one: AI delivers a genuine breakthrough, a candidate found or designed by AI that reaches a stage no human-only process would hit as fast. Where AI stops being about productivity and starts being about lives.

Archive

Earlier predictions

Every December since 2020 I’ve published ten tech predictions. Browse the back catalogue - each links to the full article on Medium.

Ten Tech Predictions

2023

The ten trends I called for 2023.

  1. 01

    Goodbye Creators - Hello Algo's

    Generative AI will disrupt most creative jobs, with more jaw-dropping breakthroughs still to come.

    Read on Medium →
  2. 02

    Matter - the SmartHome solution we've been waiting for

    The new Matter standard, backed by 300+ companies, finally makes smart-home devices work together and drives mainstream adoption.

    Read on Medium →
  3. 03

    Meet your future Robo Butler

    Most people will meet a commercial home or service robot for the first time as consumer robotics matures.

    Read on Medium →
  4. 04

    Kiss your passwords goodbye!

    Microsoft, Google and Meta roll out Passkeys, and passwordless login starts to replace the password.

    Read on Medium →
  5. 05

    It's time to build your digital twin

    Lifelike 3D digital twins become something people build for work, collaboration and the metaverse.

    Read on Medium →
  6. 06

    One step closer to AGI

    Much larger models like GPT-4 deliver smoother, more human-like dialogue - another step toward AGI.

    Read on Medium →
  7. 07

    The impression recession

    New EU regulation forces social platforms to rethink data privacy, shrinking the ad impressions they can sell.

    Read on Medium →
  8. 08

    Are we ready for Bio Printing?

    New commercial uses of 3D bioprinting - printing tissue from living cells - emerge, with big implications for medicine.

    Read on Medium →
  9. 09

    The LiDAR Revolution

    LiDAR becomes one of the most talked-about technologies of the year, from self-driving cars to consumer devices.

    Read on Medium →
  10. 10

    Sit back and relax - autonomous driving is finally here

    By year's end few will doubt self-driving cars are near, as Cruise, Tesla and Chinese investment drive rapid progress.

    Read on Medium →